Preliminary comments on Israel's retaliation

 My analysis of Iran's drone strike was that one should not overreact.  It was small, calibrated, and intended to fail, based on Iran's strategic need to maintain credibility given Israel's strike on Damascus.  I indicated that Israel's response would be similarly small, and calibrated, in those exact words.  Yet neither side wants an escalation.  Each side merely needs to maintain credibility.  The basic problem with any military engagement, regardless of its initiation, is that the mechanics of brinksmanship are the same.  Brinksmanship is one of the canonical games from Intro Game Theory.  Player 1 moves, and either escalates, or quits.  Then, Player 2 moves, and either escalates, or quits.  Then, "Nature" moves.  Either nothing happens, or based on the number of escalations, there is an increasing probability of a disaster.  Someone's finger slips, some random person down the chain of command does something reckless, whatever.  The more escalations, the higher the probability of disaster goes.  There is always a probability, though.  As I wrote earlier, Iran knows that Israel has nukes, and Israel has no will to fight, so no one really wants a fight.  Yet, each side needed to maintain credibility, and this was what we saw.  Is this it?  For now, probably, but there will be more conflict, both through proxies, and eventually, directly.  There will probably, eventually, be war with Iran, either between Iran and Israel, or between Iran and us.  The Iranian government is psychopathic.  The Iranian people do not appear like the Iranian government, and those occasional uprisings have more support than we see physically, but of course polling is difficult given the regime.  Yet the problem for the civilized world is the Iranian government, and there will be a war with them.

Later.

For now, Israel does not have any will to fight.  It lost its only international ally (the US, because the White House is in Democratic hands) and it lost its internal will to the demoralization that comes from caring more about the enemy than they care about themselves.  Iran, in contrast, plays a game of incrementalism, seeing just how far they can push without putting themselves in any real danger.

Once Iran gets nukes, look out.  Everything changes.

Observe how terrified the world is of Vladimir Putin, and how hamstrung NATO is by the fear of nuclear retaliation if they involve themselves directly.  Why?  Putin has nukes.

What happens when Iran gets nukes?

Do you want to fight them now, or after they get nukes?  They're arming the Houthis, Hamas and Hezbollah now.

But sure.  Everything is going to get nice and quiet.  It's fine.  Nothing to see here.