In Tenure Veritas: Libations From The Ivory Tower

It seems like a no-brainer for this week.  Ella & Louis, "Let's Call The Whole Thing Off."

OK, so this is it.  Second quarter numbers are in, and that means it is time for a post. After the 2016 election, I made the following pledge:  I will not question the forecasting models again.  In particular, in the Abramowitz Model I trust.  That's the "Time For A Change" model.  Contrary to what so many pundits have told you, the political science forecasting models got 2016 right .  Forecasting models and polls are different.  Polls are samples of the population, preferably close to the election, and we attempt to extrapolate from the sample when the sample is neither a random sample of the overall population nor necessarily reflective of the electorate.  That can be difficult, and it was in 2016.  That is not  what forecasting models do.  Forecasting models take variables that predict election results well in advance of the election, and plug them into parsimonious regression models to predict results without polls.  The polls in 2016 were wrong.  The forecasting m

Dean Magraw & Eric Kamau Gravatt, "Inside Outside," from Fire on the Nile .

Last weekend, Donald Trump had a typically Trump-ian interview with Chris Wallace.  Let's spin the Wheel-o-Trump to select a topic that'll make our heads spin.  Among those topics, Trump's reversion to form on the 2020 election.  A while back, he made some out-of-characteristically anodyne statement that he might actually respect the democratic process and leave office voluntarily following what looks like a likely 2020 involuntary ass-grabbing as Biden hands Trump the latter's own posterior, with obligatory caveats of uncertainty.  I called bullshit .  And last weekend, Trump reverted to form and pointedly refused to say that he would abide an electoral loss.  He ain't no dude, and he doesn't abide.  He's the big  Lebowski, and like that  Lebowski, he's a racist fraud. Sorry, that's too kind.  To Donald.  Donald was a draft dodger, and would never abide a charity that is anything more than just another scam.  You do remember the court order to shu

OK, we're doing this a little differently today.  First, I'm going to put up something that is a little out of character for me.  Animals As Leaders, "To Lead You To An Overwhelming Question."  This is a live performance, so that you can watch Tosin Abasi play.  This man is just on a different level from mortal guitarists.  Then, to reassure you that this blog has not been hijacked by pranksters, I'm giving you a second musical post by the greatest musical prankster of all time, Frank Zappa.  "Eat That Question," from The Grand Wazoo .  It doesn't get as much of the glory as Hot Rats , but it is nearly as good an album.

Whether or not this counts as jazz is irrelevant to me today.  Steve Tibbetts, with a live version of "Test."  The studio version is on Safe Journey .

Bettye LaVette, "How Am I Different?" from I've Got My Own Hell To Raise .

This is a simple observation.  I'm working up to some other things, and John Lewis died, so I'll try to keep it simple for this morning. Anthony Fauci.  Interesting fellow.  I am motivated this morning by that oppo-research and Navarro piece that the White House put out to discredit him, and I'll take the example that he changed his mind on the necessity of wearing face masks.  He changed his mind as the data presented a clearer case for the necessity of masks. As John Maynard Keynes said, "when the facts change, I change my mind.  What do you do, sir?" As I remind my students at every opportunity possible, science is never about "proving" anything.  In mathematics, we can prove a theorem, yet that theorem is merely the logical deduction from a set of assumptions, existing in a hypothetical netherworld.  Philosophers may argue that they can prove within the realm of their own ever-more-abstract abstractions, yet they also argue about the concept of

This seems like a good tribute to Rep. John Lewis (D-GA).  Here's Rhiannon Giddens, doing the title cut from Freedom Highway .  Like I said in my main post, an actual, literal comic book superhero.

Wide Hive Players, "Stained Glass Tribal Mask," from Turnstyle .

I'm stuck on a theme, I guess.  I think the statue issue is pretty much done to death at this point.  There is, however, something more complex and interesting here as it relates to music.  I addressed this to some degree in my earlier post on statues and art, but let's delve into the complex politics of country, bluegrass and how issues of race, region and the Civil War are treated in these genres. To a significant portion of the population, country music is nothing more than conservative white people's music, associated with a rural and exclusionary culture.  Based on those cultural associations, plenty of people who might be prone to read some snooty professor's blog will dismiss country music in its entirety.  In fact, that was the original motivation for posting country music back on The Unmutual Political Blog .  Soon after I started that now-defunct blog, a student made a comment during a presentation about how she expected that nobody in the room actually li

There's plenty of great music in today's main post, but I guess for today's bonus, let's go with Little Feat, and the title cut from Dixie Chicken .  Here's a live version with a couple of guests.  Pretty much the greatest guests you could ever want.  Bonnie Raitt and Emmylou Harris.

If you haven't read the Harper's " Letter on Justice and Open Debate ," you really should.  If you can't figure out where I stand here, you haven't been paying attention.  Nevertheless, I have much to add because there is so much happening.  There is the inevitable backlash, denial, hand-wringing, and whathaveyou.  Because of course there is. The signatories of the letter are a diverse lot.  The original victim of cancel culture is there, of course.  Salman Rushdie.  Ideologically, they run the gamut from the far left to the far right, and no matter your political inclinations, there are people who signed the letter whom you detest for one reason or another.  The question, of course, is whether or not you grant them the right to speak their minds anyway.  That is the philosophical question of free speech.  Not the governmental  question of free speech, which is the dodge used by proponents of cancel culture.  ("The first amendment only protects you fro

Rock actually does have some great singers these days.  Here's Chris Whitley's daughter, Trixie.  She's amazing beyond words.  "Silent Rebel Pt. 2," from Fourth Corner.

Not my absolute favorite version, but this will do.  Jaco Pastorius, "Three Views of a Secret," from Word of Mouth .

OK, that's enough of that.  I need a break from current events, but I'll combine political science and jazz today by commenting on the basic problem of how we assess collective preferences, why it doesn't work, and a silly poll from Jazz Times . Yeah, I read Jazz Times .  Of course I do.  They asked readers to participate in a poll to compile the best jazz albums of the 1990s.  Why?  'Cuz.  It's a thing that music lovers do.  You can find it here , should you care.  They are going decade by decade, to do a 50-year spread. My tastes, of course, are idiosyncratic.  To the degree that you care about the list I would make, I spent some time thinking about what it would be, and why, and here's the list I eventually made for my 10 jazz albums for the 1990s.  I couldn't actually  get it down to 10.  I suck.  I got it down to 11.  Whatever.  The list is based on musical vision and originality, which can mean a variety of things, including instrumental approach,

On the topic of obscure, 1990s jazz, here's Phil deGruy.  "If I Only Had A Brain," from Innuendo, Out The Other .  He calls that instrument a "guitarp."  He began with a Lenny Breau-inspired 7 string, and then added a bunch of harp-style strings.  deGruy is nuts.

Well.  July 4, 2020.  This is a strange time.  I have known none stranger.  Granted, in geologic terms, I have scarcely been here for the blink of an eye, but still.  Strange times.  Anyway, there has been a long-running theme in my commentaries on democracy in this country, and I won't rehash them in long form because there is no need.  The short version, relevant for today's commentary, is that I have not been very sanguine about the state of democracy in America.  Specifically, I have been predicting very bad things about the 2020 election. Until the coronavirus outbreak, the economy was chugging along beautifully, putting Trump on the glide-path to reelection.  However, the pandemic and economic collapse have changed a lot.  Right now, in a free and fair election, the odds would tilt against him.  How strongly?  That's hard to say.  We don't have a lot of precedent here, but Q2 GDP will be terrible, and plugging that into something like the old Abramowitz model, a

Not my usual, but for today, let's go with Soundgarden, "4th of July," from Superunknown .

I suppose here's some more Charlie Hunter.  Here's a live version of "Someday We'll All Be Free."  The studio version is on his self-titled album.