What we should be asking about the aftermath of the 2020 election

Last weekend, Donald Trump had a typically Trump-ian interview with Chris Wallace.  Let's spin the Wheel-o-Trump to select a topic that'll make our heads spin.  Among those topics, Trump's reversion to form on the 2020 election.  A while back, he made some out-of-characteristically anodyne statement that he might actually respect the democratic process and leave office voluntarily following what looks like a likely 2020 involuntary ass-grabbing as Biden hands Trump the latter's own posterior, with obligatory caveats of uncertainty.  I called bullshit.  And last weekend, Trump reverted to form and pointedly refused to say that he would abide an electoral loss.  He ain't no dude, and he doesn't abide.  He's the big Lebowski, and like that Lebowski, he's a racist fraud.

Sorry, that's too kind.  To Donald.  Donald was a draft dodger, and would never abide a charity that is anything more than just another scam.  You do remember the court order to shut down The Trump Foundation, right?  I'm not even joking here.  Trump is more cartoonish than The Big Lebowski from The Big Lebowski.

Anyway, here's the transcript of the Wallace interview I was mentioning before I got off-track in that way that I cannot help.  Yeah, I'm linking to Fox, because that's where the transcript is.  As an interesting side-note, Wikipedia is getting tetchy about people using Fox links as sources... 'cuz.

Moving on.  Tryin' to keep this short-'n-sweet today, and I kinda suck at that, in case you hadn't noticed.  Let's not have any illusions.  He will not concede if he loses.  Period.  He will turn the election and aftermath into a political and constitutional crisis.  Democrats keep telling themselves that if there is a big enough landslide, Trump will have to concede, or something, but no.  A big landslide will just make him say that the fraud was yuge.  There is no margin of victory that will prevent the coming constitutional crisis.  This isn't about reality.  It's about Trump and the intersection between his stupidity, dishonesty, paranoia and vanity.  Reality has nothing to do with anything created by that toxic brew.

And there is no point asking Trump what he'll do.  (There's actually no point in asking him any question, ever.  He'd lie and brag pointlessly if you asked him what he had for breakfast.)

What should journalists do?

Ask the rest of the Republican Party how they will respond.  Ask Mitch McConnell, Kevin McCarthy, and everyone else on down the line:  If Donald Trump loses in 2020, and refuses to accept the result, what will you do?  Will you recognize Joe Biden as the legitimate president if Biden wins, but Trump refuses to vacate office?  Will you support the legitimate process of presidential transition if Biden wins and Trump tries to hold onto power?

The nightmare scenarios I have presented for the 2020 aftermath have all rested on the GOP establishment backing Trump and his refusal to step down.  I have begun to see some glimmer of hope based on the observation that the more Republicans accept the "narrative" that Trump is losing, the harder it will be for them to turn around after the election and back Trump's lie that he only lost because of "voter fraud," and hence back his refusal to leave office.

This isn't about margins of victory.  This is about "narratives."  Normally, I treat these as politically irrelevant constructions of journalists, and other such critters, but strangely enough, right now, they matter.  They matter because to the degree to which Republican establishment figures accept the Trump-is-losing narrative now, and through October, changing their narrative on November 4 will get harder.  Not impossible, but harder.

They are capable of deciding, as of November 4, that we have always been at war with Eastasia, Russia is great and our ally, tariffs, which are TAXES, are awesome, executive orders and unchecked presidential power is precisely how the country should be run, a president who lies constantly, commits adultery and sexual assault is not just cool, but clearly the greatest person in the history of the universe, and whatever else is politically convenient precisely 24 hours later.  Like I said, not impossible, just harder.  The fact that it gets harder, though, may matter.

Throughout Trump's Presidency, I have said that Trump's power only exists because Republicans grant it.  Democrats have never been a check on him for one simple reason.  Any criticism levied only by Democrats becomes defined as "partisan," given the perversity of political dialog in the anti-intellectual political system we inhabit, where arguments are never considered on their merit, but only on who makes them.  As long as Republicans back him in lock-step, Trump remains unchecked.  This has been the great and disturbing revelation of both Trump and the Republican Party.

And if only a few Republicans cross Dear Leader, they are excommunicated.  Even Liz Cheney's tacit criticisms have made her a heretic within the Church of Trump.  At least she gives me yet another demonstration that Grossman & Hopkins are wrong.  The Republican Party and conservatism aren't, and never were about ideological purity.  Cheney is the pure one, and she's the heretic.  Sorry, Matt & Dave.

Trump remains largely unchecked because anyone who does what Liz Cheney did gets excommunicated.  That's how the cult works.  As long as that continues, Trump's power will only continue to grow, and yes he can stay in office after an electoral loss by spreading lies about voter fraud and getting his entire party to go along with it.  If that happens, the 2020 election result becomes one of those things that portions of the political system treat as an unknowable simply because the parties disagree.  Everyone?  No, but enough for Trump to stay in power.  Yes, that would violate every legal and constitutional process we have.  That doesn't mean it can't or won't happen.  It'd be the final nail in the coffin of American democracy.  It would depend, though, on GOP establishment reactions to the inevitable Trump lies about 2020 election results.  We know what he'll say and do.  So stop asking him.

Ask them.

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