In Tenure Veritas: Libations From The Ivory Tower

Another quick news-'0-the-week post, just to break pattern. Will the coronavirus affect the 2020 election?  Chris Achen & Larry Bartels actually have a relevant research paper here, called " Blind Retrospection ."  They eventually incorporated it into a pretty good book.  I've been assigning the paper for years.  Here's the basic point:  voters actually blame incumbents, and punish them, for natural disasters beyond their control.  They actually, seriously found an effect for the Matawan, NJ shark attacks that were the loose inspiration for Jaws .  Not.  Kidding.  For real.  Yeah, voters will do that. Democracy!  YEAH! So, fun story.  They also included analysis of the 1918 influenza outbreak.  That case?  No effect.  No electoral punishment.  Why?  Achen & Bartels argued that the key was whether or not a plausible story could be told about politicians having a responsibility.  Sure, there are natural disasters, but if it is pure natural disaster, co

Something different today, just 'cuz.  Two brief news-o'-the-week posts. I am going to say something nnnnnnn... ni... Hey!  That's clearly  an adjective, so don't even think  about it.  Diagram your sentences, kids! Anyway, I'm going to say something that is actually nice to Bernie Sanders. This is going to hurt.  But, don't worry, I haven't lost my mind.  (I don't think I have, but then, how would one know?)  Cuban literacy.  Fidel Castro was a brutal dictator and a horrible person who happened  to improve Cuban literacy rates.  That means that if you look at the complete list of everything he did, even though the totality of what he did was overwhelmingly horrible, it wasn't 100% horrible.  The set of things he did included at least that one good thing.  This is called a "true statement."  Bernie Sanders said a true thing.  He said a brave  true thing. Oh, that hurt . OK, time to make myself feel better by explaining why Berni

Something Cuban seems right today.  Eliades Ochoa, the title cut from Sublime Ilusion .  Another heresy:  for all the evil and stupidity of communism, and Castro's vileness, Cuba actually had a great arts program under his horrible, horrible rule, as I understand it, although I am willing to be corrected.  And I really dig Cuban music.  If you don't, what's wrong with you?

The Dirty Dozen Brass Band, "St. James Infirmary," from My Feet Can't Fail Me Now .

When I wrapped up the "Virtue-signaling" series a couple of weeks ago, I thought I would stay away from science fiction-themed posts for a while.  I wanted to change things up a bit.  Don't get stuck in a rut.  That was why I got sick of The Unmutual Political Blog .  And then, well... you know the Godfather III  quote.  Here's the deal.  The other day, an article came across my feed from Gavin Miller, " Fan of sci-fi?  Psychologists have you in their sights ."  They baited me to click. In case I needed another reason to have a problem with Psychology, Miller's article describes some trends over time in the field of Psychology describing the appeal of science fiction as ranging from delusional to narcissistic. Miller's article at The Conversation  is, at least, more skeptical of the nonsense being spewed by psychologists, and includes discussion of some of the more literary and thoughtful writers, singling out the great Ursula Le Guin, whom you m

I am not  going to play, "If I Had A Hammer . "  I hate that song.  That leaves a lot of choices.  Nine Pound Hammer?  John Henry?  Could John Henry lift Mjolnir?  If I were to play any of those songs, whose versions?  After some consideration, I'm going with a scholarly choice.  One might even say a geeky choice, should we consider music geekery a thing.  Charley Patton, "Hammer Blues."  Why?  So that I can be geeky, and point out that the cover art used here got the spelling wrong.  Charley spelled his name, "Charley."  Not, "Charlie," but, "Charley."  Why do I know this?  I'm a music geek.  Is that, "geek?"  Not in any conventional sense of the term, "geek."  You have to stretch the definition of "geek," or at least, preface it with, "music."  If you just say, "geek," that does not conjure the image of the type of person who knows the correct, obscure spelling of Charley Patto

This morning, I'm going to pick up on some of my recent comments on trends in the Democratic Party.  In a recent post , I argued that the rise of Sanders, and the struggle within the Democratic Party to redefine liberalism were the result of the essential completion of the New Deal/Great Society project when the ACA passed.  The dominant direction being taken by liberalism at the moment is one that takes a fundamentally different view of wealth, and of taxation than the view that past iterations of liberalism held.  I'm not going to write about the debate, because I'm not doing that garbage anymore, but you'll get threads of that.  Instead, I've had some bigger ideas that have been brewing for a while. "Immigrant."  Is that a normatively loaded word?  Let's put it this way.  Can it be said, by one particular side, without normative loading?  Can it be said, by one particular side, without being attached to negative descriptors?  Does that, in itself,

I do too  listen to other stuff.  Fishbone, "End the Reign," from Give a Monkey a Brain... And He'll Swear He's the Center of the Universe .

I guess this'll work.  It's a classic anyway.  Miles Davis, the title cut from Milestones .

During the 2016 election, I wrote the occasional post on The Unmutual Political Blog  about what I called, "the burn-it-down" theory of American politics.  This was an idea that held some traction among the far-left, that if Donald Trump won, the result would be so disastrous as to lead to the rise of a new left, and a revival of the country, like how the Great Depression led to FDR, and the New Deal.  I likened it to the philosophy of Ra's al Ghul, from Batman Begins , and various other comics. What has happened instead?  I'm going to try to coin a term.  The Great Erosion.  Along the lines of Levitsky and Ziblatt's How Democracies Die , the guardrails of democracy have come off, checks and balances have ceased to function, and our democratic institutions no longer operate in any way that would have been recognizable just a few years ago.  Yet, the economy is booming, there is no spike in crime rates, international situations are tense but not over-boiling, and

Uncle Tupelo, the title cut from No Depression .  This is actually a cover of a Carter Family song, but the Uncle Tupelo album became so iconic for a generation that it became the center of the "alt-country" genre.  In fact, the term, "no depression," became the informal name of the alt-country genre, and a music magazine took the title, to cover the genre.  Eventually, the name, "Americana," took over, but for various reasons having to do with some annoying, little pop star, perhaps "no depression" will come back to reclaim the genre for serious musicians.

A few themes have been developing of late on In Tenure Veritas .  (a) Read Levitsky & Ziblatt's How Democracies Die .  (b)  There is a high likelihood that, even if a Democratic nominee defeats Trump in November, not only will Trump refuse to concede, he will have the full backing of the entire Republican Party.  (c)  I have been reassessing Sanders' chances at the Democratic nomination. Right now, Bernie Sanders, who is not even formally a Democrat, seems to have a relatively high likelihood of winning the Democratic nomination for president.  Is he a lock?  No.  Miles to go, and all that.  Crazy things can and do happen.  See:  The 2020 Iowa Caucus.  However, if you had to place a bet today , the safest bet would be Sanders. Let's put that together with Levitsky & Ziblatt.  According to their argument on democratic backsliding, it works like this:  an authoritarian, demagogic executive consolidates power because of a process called "ideological collusion.

A twofer today.  Two of the greatest guitarists around.  First, because I can't resist an opportunity to showcase one of the coolest living artists, Richard Thompson, here's a performance of "I'll Never Give It Up."  The studio version is on Sweet Warrior .  Then, someone you are less likely to know, but who has some of the best chops around:  Geoff Achison.  Another one called, "Never Give It Up."  The studio version of this track is from his album, Little Big Men .  Make of that what you will.  Just make sure you give Achison a listen.  This guy is amazing.  Absolutely amazing.  Technique-wise, he's beyond Thompson.  Heresy, I know, and as an overall musician, Thompson impresses me more, but as a straight-up guitarist, Achison is just other-worldly.

For the greatest love story ever told.  I speak, of course, of the love between Donald Trump and Bill Barr.  Nothing is more special than the relationship between a president and his attorney general. Chick Corea & Bela Fleck, "A Strange Romance," from The Enchantment .  Jazz?  Close enough.

The Isabel Fall fiasco has challenged my basic principles regarding the separation of art from artist, and as I wrap up the "Virtue and virtue-signaling" series, Nora Jemisin gives me yet another reason to think.  Here is where I think I stand right now.  The basic problem with how Jemisin and the other "social justice warriors" behave in situations like the Isabel Fall mess is the problem of vigilantism.  It only works in the comics.  In real life, it hurts the innocent. So, to recap.  Isabel Fall is a transgender woman who wrote a story about the transgender experience.  She did so by adopting a trope used by the anti-transgender rights movement on the internet about "attack helicopters."  The story was called, "I Sexually Identify As An Attack Helicopter."  While the story was a sincere attempt to grapple with the process of transitioning, the SJWs didn't bother to read it.  They just saw the title, and attacked.  Fall was traumatized

"Vigilante Man."  The most famous version, and the version that got me hooked, is from Ry Cooder's Into The Purple Valley .  However, I figured I'd go with something more obscure.  Here's Bjorn Berge's version, from Blues Hit Me .

In 2016, the Republican Party went against all conventional and political science wisdom by nominating someone with only a tenuous relationship to the party.  I began a blog called The Unmutual Political Blog  with a series called, "Trump to Political Science:  Drop Dead," while my discipline was still in denial about Trump's chances.  This year, the Democratic Party looks like it may follow suit by nominating someone who doesn't actually list his affiliation as being a member of the Democratic Party.  Will Sanders win the nomination?  At this point, I don't know and neither do you, but he has a better chance than I have thought before, and a better chance than conventional political science would say.  And at least if he wins, I can laugh one more time at that terrible book, The Party Decides .  What's going on, and what does this mean?  It is time to grapple in a serious way with the Sanders issue.  He functionally tied for victory in Iowa with another huh?

Dr. John, "Party Hellfire," from Anutha Zone .

This feels right.  Tal Wilkenfeld, "Cosmic Joke," from Transformation .

This is just a quick comment, but it needs to be stated. I have been saying all along that the political effect of impeaching Trump, given the 100% certainty of a Senate acquittal, would be to help Trump.  The modern precedent of a failed impeachment was Bill Clinton, who was impeached, amid a strong economy, and the consequence was one of two midterm elections in modern history in which the president's party gained seats in Congress.  (The other was the post-9/11 election of 2002.) Donald Trump has been acquitted by the Senate, as was 100% certain all along.  I'll admit to surprise at Romney's vote, but one vote is spitting into the ocean.  I predict the tides, not the spittle.  Those arguing that impeachment could hurt Trump have looked for evidence in a wide variety of polls, but the only polls that have ever mattered are Trump's approval/disapproval numbers, and I've been saying so all along.  What has been happening there? Check the RealClearPolitics numb

This is not the post I expected to write this morning.  Mostly, I expected to spend my day working on some revisions to ongoing research, but I think I should take some time out to post something. As my very, very few readers know, my assessment of the state of American democracy can be best described right now by the metaphor of Schrodinger's cat.  For the last three years, we have kept a box closed, leaving ourselves ignorant about whether we inhabit a superimposed universe in which democracy exists, or a superimposed universe in which democracy does not exist, and hence the wave form of democracy, in its failure to collapse through non-observation, continues to exist in the same manner that Schrodinger's cat continues to live in the closed box. However, we opened the box before yesterday's Iowa caucus. What happened?  I'll leave it to others to give you a full explanation of the problems involved with phone apps, vote-counting in caucuses, and the totality of

Quick preview of a mid-week post. I will have a few things to say soon about Bernie Sanders and the state of the Democratic Party. 1)  Can Sanders win the nomination?  Yes.  In the past, I have been extremely  skeptical, and I need to reassess.  Translation:  admit error.  Why?  The short version:  Warren's fall, combined with the growing extremism of the Democratic Party.  I didn't see the first part coming in the short run, and I didn't see the second part coming back when Trump won in 2016. 2)  What does the rise of Sanders-style extremism mean for the Democratic Party?  It has me rethinking some things about a model of political time from Stephen Skowronek.  New Deal-Great Society liberalism essentially reached its primary objectives under Barack Obama, and the "movement" aspect of the left-wing movement has cast about for direction. 3)  Could Sanders defeat Trump?  Highly unlikely.  The key thing missing from every head-to-head poll you have ever seen

Isabel Fall.  In the last couple of weeks, the worlds of politics and literature have intersected as several authors have drawn the attention and ire of virtue-signalers for the controversies courted by their books, but I read sci-fi and fantasy.  When I first conceived of this series, Isabel Fall was not on my radar, but there couldn't be a better person to demonstrate why I have spent my Sunday mornings writing these posts than Isabel.  Today, we'll delve into her story-- the one she wrote, and the one that became the story of her, and next week, I think, I'll write the coda for the series, as I try to work out my assessments of my favorite author, N.K. Jemisin, given her role in the Isabel Fall mess. As I so often do, I shall write circuitously, because I find it fun.  My blog, my rules. How long has it been since you read 1984 ?  Emmanuel Goldstein.  Goldstein was the state's enemy, around whom the public observed the ritual of Two Minutes Hate.  Who was he and