Donald Trump, NATO, America's withdrawal and the impermanence of any global power

 Donald did a Donald over the weekend.  Actually, he Donalded all over the floor several times, and someone needs to whack him on the nose with a newspaper, because Ole Oranger never was housebroken, and it is probably too late, but some of us are tired of him piddling on our nice rugs.  Bad Donald!  No well done steak with ketchup!  The minor but repulsive demonstration of his Donald-ness was his comment about Nikki Haley's husband not being on the campaign trail.  Be... cause he is serving on active duty.  The more important comment was something that indicated what we knew, which was that if Donald gets another term, NATO dies.  He made up a 'sir' story, in which someone who would never call him "sir" calls him "sir," and the upshot was that he positively encouraged Vladimir Putin to invade NATO countries because he would renege on our Article 5 duties.  In his first term, he wanted to withdraw from NATO, but he was surrounded by enough semi-responsible people to stop it.  That will not happen next time.  If he gets back into the White House, NATO is dead.

(Ukraine is already dead.)

This is not good, and one should need no further demonstrations that Donald Trump is uniquely contemptible.  That is not to say that his policy positions are the most wrong, because we live in the era of The Squad, but Trump has some uniquely contemptible traits.  This is "what is wrong with you?!" territory.  And yet, we always knew, or at least, anyone with any moral sense knew.  If only the other side were not filled with Hamas partisans, the partisan split would be unambiguous, but alas, the world is as it is.

Regardless, NATO is effectively dead anyway, because Trump's comments mean this.  No NATO country can trust the United States.  The mere fact that a leading candidate for the presidency is saying this, to applause, means that there is a high probability that the United States would fail to abide by its Article 5 obligations going forward.

The United States cannot be trusted, because of Donald Trump and his cult.

Look at this, then, from Europe's perspective.  What do they need to do now, strategically?  Build up their own militaries, or effectively treat the United States as a deadbeat.  I do not like to write this, but Donald Trump has done this, merely by saying what he has said as a leading candidate.

If I'm the UK, Germany, France, the rest of NATO, here's what I do.  I assume treaties are no longer worth the paper on which they are printed, and build up my own military.  The post-WWII peace and prosperity existed because of the United States, and because we established that order in Europe, and yes, Vietnam and so forth, but NATO was, past-tense, a source of good.  NATO countries trusted in the United States for too long.

America cannot be trusted any longer.  It has been 8 years since the election of Donald Trump.  Y'all have had 8 years to figure this out.  Are you just cluing in now?

No global power has ever been permanent, and which ones have been a source for good?  Consider Genghis Khan and the reach of his empire.  What proportion of the world's population is descended from him?  His empire was hardly benevolent.  And it fell, as all do.  Alexander?  Not a good man.  Diogenes had his number.  When Alexander met The Dog, supposedly he asked my man what he wanted.  Diogenes simply replied, get out of my sunlight.  Score one more for The Dog.

The Persian Empire?  Egypt?  Rome fell, famously, and sure, they could go from Caligula and Nero to Hadrian and Marcus Aurelius, but with whom as competitors?

And of course, we have the famous scene in Life of Brian, explaining what Rome did for, are we calling it "Palestine?"  No.  No, we are not.  Judea.

No global power lasts, and everyone should assume it will not.  Bluntly, our European allies have made a mistake to trust us for so long.  The moment Donald Trump won was the moment they should have realized that America was no longer a trustworthy ally.  "Pay up?"  No.  We're not the mob.  Just stop trusting the United States.

Treaties are not protection rackets.  They rely on honor and integrity.  If a country violates that, even in word and spirit, the treaty is already abrogated.  Europe has made a mistake.  The United States of America has been a force for good, like no other in the history of the world.  Can it be again?  I can make no long-term predictions, yet no empire lasts forever.  Caligula and Nero were followed by Marcus Aurelius.

The problem is that Trump is Caligula at a time when we most need Marcus Aurelius.

Yet for any other country to assume that Marcus is riding to the rescue is a mistake, and Marcus himself would advise against it.

Dear Europe,

You have trusted the United States for longer than was strategically advisable.  If the election of Donald Trump 8 years ago did not demonstrate to you the fallacy of trusting the United States, it is time to rectify that, and begin protecting yourselves.  Those of us who want to help cannot, at least not with certainty.  Is this morally right and proper?  No.  It is merely reality.

Ernest Ranglin, "Fade Away," from Memories of Barber Mack.