The Judiciary will not keep Trump from the White House

Yesterday, the Supreme Court refused Jack Smith's request for an immediate ruling on Trump's claim of immunity for everything he ever has done or will do because he is Leto II, God Emperor, and while he may truly be a giant worm creature with a creepy thing about younger women, that is not actually what the Constitution says.  Regardless of how the immunity claim is handled by the appeals courts, the matter will go to the Supreme Court, so why not just rule now?  It does not matter.  Game this out.

Suppose that SCOTUS granted Smith's motion.  Might they rule that Trump has immunity?  Perhaps, but probably not.  It is an absurd claim, and the only way that the conservatives would do it is if they could figure out another Bush v. Gore gimmick to say that Donald Trump is the only ex-president with immunity, so their ruling cannot be used as precedent in any potential future case.  So, like, Biden cannot have Trump hauled off to a CIA black site and have his skin pealed off, then claim immunity because this immunity thing is a no-precedent-deal, and it only works for Trump.  So really, they would probably deny the immunity claim, which we all know is a delay tactic anyway, and they'd ultimately let the case go to trial.  Let's say it goes to trial.  Let's say Trump gets convicted.  I do not think he will be convicted, for two reasons.  First, there will be at least one Republican on the jury, and there's no way a Republican will vote to convict Trump.  Second, he's up on conspiracy charges, and that requires demonstrating knowledge that he is engaged in a criminal endeavor, and that means all Trump's lawyers need to do is convince one member of the jury-- a Republican-- that Trump thought he was in the clear.  And frankly, he can probably argue that by pointing to all the times he has claimed he has immunity and total power, which he was doing from his inauguration onward anyway, along with all of the times he claimed to have believed he won, so the chances he gets convicted?  Low.

But let's say he does get convicted, before election day.  The case goes to appeal, and he won't be in prison, because there will be some special, Trump-only deal.  Realistically, the conviction will help him by riling up the Republican base even more, and Republicans at the state level will work harder to steal the election for him if he loses.  Either way, if he wins or successfully steals the election, his first act will be to pardon himself, and his second act will be to direct the feds to arrest everyone involved in his trials.

And if he is not convicted, that's vindication, and it helps him.

You cannot defeat Trump by fighting Trump because Trump is not the problem.  The problem is the American public.  Donald Trump is among the most vile human beings in modern American history.  More still, a plurality of Americans don't just love him, and they don't just worship him as their god, they worship Donald Trump precisely for his vileness.  In all likelihood, you have seen the poll of likely Iowa caucus-goers, showing that 42% indicate that they are more supportive of Trump based on his "poisoning the blood" comments.

Jihadists to the left of me, nazis to the right, here I am, stuck in an oven either way.

They love him for the evil.  Trump isn't the problem.  His voters are the problem, and no matter what the courts do, they are going to vote for him.  Beating him is a two-step process.  Win at the polls, then beat back the effort to steal the election, which will be harder this time.  You cannot short-circuit the process with the courts.  His voters won't let you.

Then again, these days the left is more of a threat to me as a Jew, so as much as I detest Donald Trump, I am thinking more and more of Cato the Younger.  Trump fancies himself Cato, but he is Caesar, and I think I have a post on this precise topic soon.  The problem is that if the Democrats are no better than Pompey, the Republic is fucked, yet if one sees Cato as the hero, then one still stands for the Republic, against Caesar without defense of that fucking weasel, Pompey.

If you want to stand for what's right, you're gonna lose.  Cato lost.  I'd say he was a guy with guts, but at the end, not so much.  Get it?  No?  Go, read.  The Republic fell.  Then again, Cato remained true, so did he lose?  Everyone dies, memento mori.  I've been doomsaying on American democracy for a while, and in some ways, the situation is more dire.  The GOP is more of a Trump cult than ever, Haley's pseudo-stardom notwithstanding, but worse, the Democratic Party has fallen completely.

Cato fought Caesar and lost.  At least he recognized what the fight was.  See truth.  See the world clearly.  Ignore gimmicks and empty moves, and see the world clearly.  Otherwise, the contest is over before it starts.

Happy Family, "Rolling the Law Court," from their self-titled debut.