Quick take: Joe Manchin's resignation

 Sen. Joe Manchin's (D-WV) announcement that he will not seek reelection presents an interesting puzzle.  I have evaluated his actions in the Senate, infuriating to the left, as strategically sound based on the premise that he is a Democrat attempting to maintain electability in the heavily Republican state of West Virginia.  I have contrasted his actions with Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (D/I-AZ), whose actions have never made as much strategic sense.  Her tactics have never been as directed, and Arizona, while not an overwhelmingly Democratic state, is not West Virginia either.  Manchin, unlike Sinema, has played his hand well.  Yet Manchin is not seeking reelection.  How do we consider this turn of events?  Does it mean that Manchin has been acting sincerely rather than strategically all along?  That would seem strange, given how manipulative his games have been.  There is a line of research about retiring legislators, which demonstrates that during their lame-duck periods, after their retirement announcements, their voting behavior is no different than during their times seeking reelection, which would suggest that their behavior tends to be sincere rather than reelection-motivated, but of course, that is a tendency rather than a universal statement.  Moreover, Manchin may decide to run for president as an independent candidate in order to ensure that Trump wins, which is precisely what would happen.  In any case, if he spent his time in office sticking it to the Democrats in order to position himself for reelection in West Virginia just to say, "oh fuck it, I can't win so I quit," that would be rather laughable, except to the Democrats on the other end of his sticks, wouldn't it?  So was he being sincere?  If so, then the Democrats, having been Manchin-stuck, would have no reasonable complaint.  They got a few more votes from a West Virginia senator than they would have gotten if a more natural fit for the state (a Republican) would have won the seat in the first place.  If, on the other hand, Manchin spent his time in office trying to position himself for reelection, sticking it to the Democrats having sincerely agreed with them, but voting against their bills with the promise that he was the only Democrat who could win in West Virginia, only to quit anyway... well, if I were Chuck Schumer, I'd whine ineffectually, like I always do.  But this time, I'd have some reasonable cause.  It all depends on whether or not Manchin actually agreed with the Democrats on anything, or whether he was a pure game player.  That, I do not know.  Still, if I were a Democrat right now, I'd be a little pissed at all those votes he sunk with the promise of keeping the seat blue.  If I were a Republican, I'd be laughing.  As is, at least I'm just writing about petty games and whiners.  I'm too old for this shit.

Brad Mehldau, "Resignation," from Elegiac Cycle.