Quick take: How much does it matter that (seemingly) everyone is flipping on Trump?
Amid so much other news, one may lose sight of the interesting fact that so many of Trump's closest, including Sidney Powell, Jenna Ellis and now, perhaps, Mark Meadows have flipped on Donald Trump. The former two have pled guilty under the terms that they testify, and there are reports that Mark Meadows has an immunity deal with Jack Smith, having flipped. What does this do to the probability of Trump being convicted on any of the charges? I remain very skeptical of a Trump conviction. Trump's attorneys will argue that anyone who flipped cannot be trusted because they are just playing games wherein they say whatever the prosecutors want in order to avoid a trial which would have created a nonzero chance of a prison term. If there are any loyal Trumpists on the jury, that'll play. No jury would have loyal Sidney Powell-ists, nor Jenna Ellis-ists, nor Mark Meadows-ists. Were Trump in office, he might, in principle, pardon them, but as we saw with Cohen, Trump is not exactly loyal to his people. In fact, Ellis appears to have been thrown to the curb on legal bills, so their calculations were clear. Anyone who doesn't flip on Trump, at this point, is just a useful idiot. Yet will any of this lead to a conviction, when Trump's attorneys will simply argue that plea deals and those who make them cannot be trusted? Therein lies the problem.
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