Trump's indictment and the violence that didn't happen

 Against my better judgment, this morning's post will be a [gulp]... cautiously optimistic post.  Clearly, I have been replaced by a pod person.  Please enjoy this morning's guest post by pod-person Buchler.  Anyway, the Arthur Conan Doyle motivation for the post is a dog that didn't bark in the form of a violent reaction that didn't occur.  Donald Trump has been indicted, and while he will almost certainly not be convicted on the hush money payments (nor anything else), he warned of his impending indictment and has predictably raised the temperature on his rhetoric, hoping to inflame a reaction.  Does Donald Trump want more violence?  Yes.  Yes, he does.

But it didn't happen.

Granted, very little time has passed, but this is an important observation.  January 6 was not a spontaneous thing.  It took organization and planning.  Trump's followers have a range of reactions right now, generally negative, but without anyone planning and organizing any kind of violent reaction, it wasn't going to happen, and with those who took the lead in planning the January 6 attack actually facing trial and conviction, there is a deterrent effect.  Consider, ironically, Dennis Chong's arguments.  Who, you may ask, is Dennis Chong?  Dennis Chong wrote a great book on how the collective action problem affected organization during the civil rights era.  There is some perversity to bringing his book into a discussion of Donald Trump, but the logic holds.  Chong's argument was that the highest costs are borne by those who initially move to form and plan.  Once someone bears that cost, it reduces the costs for the next group to join the movement because they are not at the forefront, and each subsequent participant reduces the cost of the next person to join.  Read his book.  It is very good.

How does this apply?  Deter the organizers, and it gets very difficult to get anything going because nothing happens truly spontaneously.  There is a contingent quite angry about Trump's indictment, and they will become more so when Trump faces indictment in Georgia, as he likely will.  He won't be convicted there either, and whether or not any of this changes Garland's calculus... I have no idea.  Regardless, one of the major functions of law enforcement is deterrence.  If law enforcement-- prosecution and conviction of those who organized January 6-- deters like-minded individuals from planning anything in response to Trump's indictment(s), then all that is left is what can happen spontaneously.

Which is not much.

Yes, this is uncharacteristically optimistic of me.

So what will happen?  First, there will be a mug shot.  Trump will have the biggest, shit-eating grin you'll ever see.  He will have fancy prints up for sale.  He will charge fuckloads for them, and make money selling prints of his mug shot.

If I'm Trump, I print up merchandise of every variety, saying, "I got indicted by the deep state and all I got was this lousy ___."

But organizing?  He won't be convicted.  This strengthens his grip on the GOP, he'll skate on every charge, make money on it, and if there isn't a violent reaction to the indictment announcements, we probably avoid that.

So, see?  I'm being optimistic.  After a fashion.  And I'm totally sure Dennis Chong had Donny in mind.

LITE, "Still, It Is Quiet Around Here," from Filmlets.