One year into Russia's invasion of Ukraine: Ukraine probably cannot win.

 One year ago, Russia invaded Ukraine.  The world's expectations-- my own included-- were that Putin would steamroll Ukraine and take the country in weeks, or perhaps little more.  Russia has taken parts of Ukraine, but Putin has been throwing lives and resources into the war for a year with comparatively little gains, and Ukraine has put up a remarkable fight, beyond anyone's expectations.  If we are honest, Ukraine's fight would not be possible without US support, but let is consider.  Can Ukraine win?  Reassessing based on the situation a year later, can Ukraine win?

When the world expected Russia to steamroll the country in weeks, must we re-evaluate a year later?  Yes.  But that does not mean the ultimate conclusion will be different.  Ukraine will still lose, I regret to say.  This is a simple matter of the domestic politics of the US, and the domestic politics of Russia.  Yes, Russia is a dictatorship, but even dictatorships have domestic politics.

Here is the problem.  Ukraine can only fight Russia as long as they are supported by American weapons.  If American military and financial support dries up, that's it.  All the will and tenacity in the world still amounts to the short stack in a poker game.  Give me enough chips, and I'll beat the best player in the world because he'll have the short stack.

And American domestic politics will not fund Ukraine indefinitely.  Whether or not Biden can keep congressional appropriations coming under the newly divided government is a question mark.  He has to deal with the pro-Russian faction of the GOP, which is also the faction that will push hardest for a shutdown, and they have McCarthy by the gavel.  More challenging still is that there is an election next year.  What happens?  No clue.  Statistically, most incumbents are re-elected, and yes, there remains some uncertainty over whether or not Biden runs, but we have no idea what kind of economy the Democrats will be facing, in which case, we have no idea what kind of odds the Democrats will be facing.  If the White House flips, Ukraine's support will fade.

Putin is a dictator.  If anyone in Russia, civilian or government, challenges him, he kills that person.  He sets policy unilaterally.  So, he can keep throwing money and bodies into the meat grinder, and while neither Russia nor Ukraine is making gains right now, Putin can do this for a literally indefinite period of time.  As in, we do not know how long he can do it.  Russia will never run out of bodies, and Wagner isn't exactly regular army.  Putin has two concerns.  First, if he abandons the invasion of Ukraine, he faces a coup.  Second, if there is sufficient impatience within the Russian government and military before American financial and military support dries up, he faces a coup.

Will that second risk happen?  The problem is that it is common knowledge that political support for Ukraine is a largely partisan issue in America, combined with the fact that the public will not accept throwing money indefinitely into a war in Europe.  Putin, and everyone around him all know that they can wait out the American public.  All they have to do is keep throwing bodies into the meat grinder and wait.  Drones, bombs, bodies.  The only thing Putin cannot do-- because he will literally be executed in a coup-- is give up.

The American public will not see it that way.  Patience wanes, willingness to fund the Ukrainian fight wanes, Republican support for Putin ever-waxes, along with a cowardice that has Reagan spinning in his grave, and that means the war is a game called "war of attrition."

The players are the US and Russia.  Who will sustain losses for longer?

The irony is that Russia's losses in any time period far surpass those of the United States.  It is merely that Vladimir Putin will pay literally any cost-- and I keep using that word, which means exactly what I think it means because I hate misuse of that word-- because the alternative for him is his own death.  If he yields, there will be a coup in Russia, and he will not survive it.  So, while the country called "Russia" pays higher costs per round than the United States, Vladimir Putin doesn't care, because he never cared.  He's a psychopath.  He committed himself to a path from which he cannot back down.  Thomas Schelling, anyone?  And that means Russia outlasts the US.

Lindsey Graham was right.  Assassinate Putin.

Richard Thompson, "Can't Win," live.