Morning after/amid reactions to the 2022 election results

 Well, here we are.  I have a few assorted observations, none of which constitute a fully realized argument, so I shall put them in list form.

1.  I hope nobody expected to know about the Senate majority by now.

2.  Reactions to the House shift seem strange.  The Republicans are picking up seats.  How many?  Enough for a majority, probably.  What was your expectation?  Mine was "enough for a majority."

3.  The relative paucity of the GOP House gain seems to be treated like something that Dems can celebrate, and a thing for GOP hang-wringing.  Um... Dems?  You lost.  GOP?  You won.  (Again, probably, but the Democrats went into this thing with such a narrow majority that a mouse fart could hand the House to the Republicans.)

4.  Did the GOP gain less than one might expect?  Q2 GDP growth was -0.6%.  Yes, inflation is terrifying, but inflation is a poor statistical predictor of election results.  Regardless, one might have expected larger gains.

5.  If the GOP picked up fewer House seats, then why?  The Political Science explanation would send you down the road of looking at factors like candidate quality.  Why, for example did the purveyor of medical fraud lose to the stroke victim?  One had experience (the stroke victim), and the other did not (the fraud).  Look across the board, as we will be able to do when the results are all in.  Or, if you are an ideologue, you pick an issue and make up an argument out of whole cloth without bothering to test any hypotheses.  I'd go with Door Number 1, but then, I like science.

6.  Will Kevin McCarthy be Speaker?  If you have been paying attention, I keep making comments about, say, Speaker Marjorie Taylor Greene.  Will Kevin McCarthy be Speaker, or will his "identity" as a "shitweasel" once again block him from the gavel?  I do not know, but the more narrow the margin, the easier it is for the loonies in the caucus to say they want a shitweasel who is shittier and weaselier.

7.  Hey, Stacey Abrams learned about the concept of "conceding!"  Now go away.  I do not understand lefty fascination with this person who is, what we call in technical terms, a loser.  Sorry, two-time loser.  Go away, Stacey.

8.  This leads me to Monday's observations about democracy, concession, and the future of democracy.  A lot of the wackos either lost already, or are running close right now in races that have not been called.  How is democracy doing?  I do not know.  Let's see.  More soon.

Sonny Rollins, "Softly, As In A Morning Sunrise," from A Night At The Village Vanguard.