If the 2022 election was the 2024 election, then who won/will win?

 My pre-election commentary going into the midterms was that we were doing something strange and interesting.  We were holding the 2024 presidential election early, by selecting those who would select the president in the 2024 election.  Donald Trump is still the most likely GOP nominee, although the slim gains made by the party probably did diminish his chances somewhat.  Nevertheless, he is the presumptive nominee.  If the economy is in poor shape in 2024, he wins legitimately, and he takes back the White House fair in square.  Whether or not Republicans cede power again becomes an important question, but he could quite reasonably win legitimately.  The question is what happens if he loses?

Trump's most loyal supporters across many states were quite vocal in their embrace of his 2020 conspiracy theories, and would likely take any measure to overturn a Democratic win in their respective states.  Hence, states were effectively holding the 2024 contest early, by determining whether to hold the vote honestly in two years, or just hand the thing outright to Donald Trump.  I even made the case that there is some small-d democratic theory and constitutional originalism that one can associate with the notion, since the original conception of presidential elections was that they would be indirect elections wherein state officials would select electors, and your input would be through your vote for state officials.  There are problems with this, most obviously the dishonesty inherent in the current iteration, but if we did it on the up-and-up, one could make a case.

As an empirical point, though, we can now look across most contests and make some assessments.  I am not fond of the phrase, "election denier," but it has become a common one.  No one denies the existence of elections.  Election conspiracy theorist.  Biden victory denier.  Trump cultist.  There are many terms I might use, but "election denier" just does not make conceptual sense.  Nevertheless, I always lose these battles.  More importantly, though, the conspiracy theorists mostly lost at the state level.  The gubernatorial and sec. state candidates who associated themselves most closely with Trump's conspiracy theories lost, and with Kari Lake finally losing the count in Arizona, the most high profile of the liars has gone down.

So rejoice!  Democracy is saved!

Perhaps, but not necessarily.  Let's run through some of the scenarios by which Trump could still steal the 2024 election.

He still has enough state legislatures for 270.  As of right now, they do not have the legal authority to throw out election results for the hell of it, although we have seen models of legislation that could be adopted across more purple states with GOP control.  The more nervous they get, and the more nervous Trump gets, the more likely legislation gets.  Think of Georgia's new law, allowing the state to replace county officials.  Ramp that up.  (Of course, some saner gubernatorial candidates could have helped Trump in more states, like Pennsylvania!)

Congress is split.  Democrats have the Senate, and Trump has the House.  If Trump loses, he demands that the House object to the count, which they will by a majority vote, but since the Senate will not have a majority objecting, you won't have both chambers registering an objection.  Except... a new Congress is sworn in on January 3.  We don't yet know the outcome of the Georgia runoff, but it could require no more than a single Senate seat flipping for Trump to control the Senate, while the GOP retains its natural advantage in the House.  Then, Trump has both chambers going into the count.  Both chambers object to any Democratic win, it goes to a House vote on a one-vote-per-state rule, and Trump is president.

Trump has two more years to plan a better court challenge.  I wrote in the mess of his idiotic legal filings that I was shocked how bad they were.  He had Republican judges ready, willing and able to side with him, but they need an argument.  Any argument.  Instead, he gave them Rudy.

Did democracy win?  Don't count your hatchlings before they're McNuggeted.  If there is one thing I have learned in my direct interactions with a deeply corrupt institution that knows no bounds and will sink to any level of putrescence up to and including the manipulation of threats of physical violence...

Oh, did you think I was writing about Trump or the GOP?  No.  Personal experience.  I'm saying I know what it's like dealing with such people.  And the point is, they will always cheat, and the person with honor is at an intrinsic disadvantage.  It ain't over until entropy wins, kiddies, because the only thing that always wins is entropy.  Behold, the entropic forces of shitbaggery.

Ruins, with their most appropriately titled piece, "Entropy."  You can only find this one on the '86-'92 compilation.  Should you be weird enough to be a Ruins fan.