Quick take: Treaties matter
Vladimir Putin is probably going to invade Ukraine. We do not have a treaty with Ukraine. Ukraine is not a NATO member. If it were, we would respond with force. Given that threat, Putin would not invade. Basic game theory. This is why treaties matter. This is why Putin does not want Ukraine to join NATO, nor to sign any treaties that would protect it. Yet without any such treaties, there is an upper bound on the punishments we can impose upon Putin, which means that if Putin places enough value on Ukraine, he cannot be deterred from invading it. Treaties matter. NATO matters. It's probably too late for Ukraine, but if any other country is concerned, the lesson is this. Sign a treaty. Otherwise, if Putin or anyone else comes for you, we can't help you.
Since when have treaties mattered in Eastern Europe?
ReplyDeleteDepends on who signs 'em. We're handing over the Sudetenland without a treaty at all, but generally speaking, NATO honors Article 5.
DeleteI mean, it's not like a complicated web of treaties ever led to a massive war or anything.
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