On "Justice for J6," and Anthony Gonzalez

 Today, something crazy will happen.  It is a day ending in "-y."  A group of indeterminate size will hold the "Justice for J6" rally, based on the premise that those charged with criminal offenses for the January 6 insurrection are actually innocent political prisoners, or some such.  In other news, Rep. Anthony Gonzalez (R-OH) has announced that he will not seek reelection.  Gonzalez was one of the ten Republicans to vote to impeach Trump for his role in that insurrection.  Gonzalez correctly observed that he cannot win a primary in the modern Republican Party, which remains nothing more than a Trump personality cult and autocratic conspiracy theory mill.

What will happen today?  Will there be more violence and death?  I would put the odds at less than 50%, but not zero.  Alas, not zero.  Nevertheless, we are not seeing the same level of preparation, organization, or most importantly, incitement by Trump and top-level leaders with a specific goal.  On January 6, Trump told his mob to storm the Capitol and stop the counting of electoral votes.  There was a purpose.  He actually, seriously thought that "the people" (translation: his cultists) were rising up to install him as dictator for life, as was his proper place in the universe.  He seriously believed this, which was why he was so gleeful watching it on tv, which he cannot distinguish from reality.

Today, there is no goal, no event, and really, nobody motivating this.  It's just some schmucks.  Might bad things happen?  Yeah, but the odds are considerably lower, so as you are placing your bets with your friends, like the cold-blooded person you are, make sure you take that into consideration.  If you are betting on violence and death, make sure you get a good payoff.  You sicko.

Anyway, then there is Anthony Gonzalez.  For several reasons, he doesn't have the stature of Rep. Liz Cheney (R-WY) or Rep. Adam Kinzinger (R-IL).  Mostly, they have been vocal.  All in.  If you challenge Trump, you challenge him.  Don't shrink from the fight.  Cheney and Kinzinger are the two Republicans who didn't just vote to impeach.  They are still fighting the good fight.  And note my phrasing.  "Fight."  Yes, the word is a metaphor, and as I have written, from a legal perspective, the frequency with which the word is used that way does insulate Trump from incitement charges given the First Amendment, but morally?  No.  Anyway, Cheney and Kinzinger are basically trying to save the GOP.  They'll fail, but they are trying, every day.

Gonzalez?

Anthony Gonzalez and Liz Cheney are in different positions, for a few reasons.  Will Cheney survive a primary?  I don't know.  The GOP is lost, and beyond salvation.  Yet Cheney has a name.  Once upon a time, there was an ideology called, "conservatism."  Or rather, there were two ideologies called, "conservatism."  Or... three.  And an almost fanatical devotion to the guy who runs a child molestation ring that collaborated with nazis.  There are a lot of meanings of "conservatism," but let's distinguish between at least two.  There is classical conservatism, going back to my boy, Eddie Burke.  Caution, aversion to change if you don't have a fucking plan...  Burke was cool.  Interesting tradition, running up through Oakeshott, and lots of groovy stuff, but you'll never catch them saying, "groovy."  Whatever.

Then, there's modern-ish conservatism.  Let's call this the Goldwater through Dick-and-Dubya conservatism.  "Taxes suck" would be the main theme here, coalescing fully under St. Ronnie of the Silver Screen But We Hate Hollywood, but then you have to add in aversion to welfare, partly because it's paid by taxes, but... other stuff.  Reagan connected this to the churches, and that gives you a bunch of stuff, abortion especially, and I'm breezing through political history for the sake of brevity, but I got shit to say and shit to do, so let's do this.  Where it gets more uncomfortable is that Goldwater starts playing footsie with racists to cut into the Democratic Southern stronghold.  So, Strom Thurmond and others start switching parties in '64 because Goldwater told civil rights advocates to go fuck themselves, and it might as well have been a eugenics thing, so fuck Goldwater.  Nixon picked up the racist baton from there, and the GOP just got worse and worse and worse, and eventually, you get... Trump.

And what is the GOP now?  What is "conservatism?"  Basic concept from economics:  the axiom of revealed preferences.  You reveal your preferences through your actions, because words are bullshit.  Talk is cheap, words are bullshit, show me what you do, and I'll know what you prefer.

Remember when "conservatism" had something to do with christian morality?  Funny, right?  Remember the Grover Norquist no-taxes pledge?  And then Trump raised a bunch of taxes and nobody cared?  Or even noticed?  Free trade?  What the fuck happened to that?

Abortion remains!  Interestingly, abortion remains.  This is fascinating, from a political science standpoint, but nothing else does.  Everything else?  Oh, fuck it.  Just bow down to Donald Trump, spout and repeat every lie he tells, and tear down democracy.  That's 2021 conservatism, and the modern Republican Party.  That's it.  Well, that and abortion.  Everything else has been stripped away because Donald Trump didn't care about it, and spat in its face.  But abortion?  Here, have some judges.  I'll let you have these judges, and in exchange, worship me as your living god.

So here we are.  The Capitol Police and various other agencies are preparing for another event-- which will probably fizzle-- which is based on a set of lies and conspiracy theories which are the only central, motivating principles of the Republican Party.  It is a party of lies, conspiracy theories, and at this point, terrorism to support a would-be autocrat.  And the only ones with any courage to stand up to the lies and the would-be autocrat are being driven from the party.  All of this at once.  This week.

OK, Democrats.  Time for your medicine.  An extended hour drop box is not, I repeat, not, "the very cornerstone, the definition, the center, the core, the absolute sine qua non of democracy!"  Stop the foolishness.  Look at what is actually happening.

Extended voting hours, widespread absentee ballot access... this shit's new.  We ran elections for a long-ass time, post VRA without it.  And you know what?  Controlling for basic demographics like age and education, African-American turnout was higher than white turnout under those rules!  Why?  'Cuz this shit's extra.  Is it nice to have?  Yeah.  Do I want it?  Yeah.  Would I vote to restore it?  With fuckin' bells on.  Is an election without it nazi fuckin' Germany?

No!  Cut that shit out.

An election without it is an election under rules wherein African-American turnout was higher than white turnout, controlling for primary turnout determinants.  It's a 1990s style election, to say nothing of what happened when they opened up elections in places like South Africa.  We weren't nazi fucking Germany in the 1990s.  I know.  I was there.  (The 1990s, that is.  Not nazi Germany.  They would have killed me.)  For one thing, the music was way better.  Perry Farrell would have gotten his ass so thrown into a concentration camp!

What matters?  A party that boots Anthony Gonzalez, looks at today's rally and... looks away...

This matters.  This is the scary thing.  And Democrats, as usual, are focused on stupid shit instead of paying attention to what matters.

Is there anything that can be done by paying attention to it?  I... don't know, but focusing on the wrong thing won't get you anywhere.

To be sure, Democrats are aware of today's event, January 6, Gonzalez, and the rest, but their obsession with a stupid bill that can't pass and wouldn't solve anything anyway demonstrates that they aren't really watching what matters.

Time for some bluegrass.  Here's a live performance by Billy Strings of "Watch It Fall."  There's a studio version on Home.