The Taliban and Afghanistan's Overton Window

 Afghanistan is falling to the Taliban.  This was inevitable.  One day or another, we would leave, and when that happened, the Taliban would reclaim the country.  If I had my druthers, our method of leaving would have been something closer to the following:  go around to every woman and girl, and say, "come with me if you want to live."  Too late now.  So we turn to the question I teased yesterday.  Why is Afghanistan a hotbed of such ideology?  Useful information can be found in some cross-country analysis conducted by Pew.  Here is a link to the full study.  It is a few years old at this point, but not old enough for the fundamental trends to be outdated, and it is the general contours that are important for the points I'm going to make this morning, on this rather distressing morning.

Sharia law.  The term can mean a lot of things, but Pew asked respondents in muslim countries whether or not they believe their country should be governed by sharia law.  This isn't that crazy lie Republicans told a few years back about neighborhoods here being under sharia law, if you remember that.  No, this is just asking actual muslims in actual muslim countries whether or not they believe in separation of mosque and state.  In Afghanistan, 99% of muslims believe that the country should be governed by sharia law.

Afghanistan is essentially unanimous in their opposition to separation of mosque and state.  Afghanistan is on the extreme end on this important question, but there is more, of course.

Afghanistan is uniquely high in its support for acts like suicide bombings.  In Afghanistan, 39% support suicide bombings, which is less than a majority, but far higher than everywhere else except the Palestinian territories, where it is 40%.  Outlier.  But Afghanistan tops the territories on other numbers.

As an apostate, I like to ask how apostates are treated.  Pew asked those who support the imposition of sharia-- which was 99% of Afghans-- whether or not apostates should be murdered.  I shall dispense with legalistic euphemisms.  79% supported murdering apostates.

OK, technically, I should multiply 79% by 99%, and get 78.21%.  There, that makes it all better now, right?

If I were African-American, I'd care more about Juneteenth than July 4.  When I see 78.21% of a country that believes in murdering apostates, what I see is a country where letting people like me live is the fringe position.

"Come with me if you want to live."  What we should have been doing was finding a way to ensure that every woman and girl who wanted out could get out.

But why would a feminist like me feel the need to go all Arnold on this mess?  With full knowledge of his history of sexual harassment.

What about Afghan opinion on honor killings?  In Afghanistan, the level of support for that particular form of murder was 60%.  Again, Afghanistan is an outlier, although Iraq is right there with it.  Interestingly, Afghanistan does show the same level of support for executing men who engage in premarital/extramarital sex, so it isn't just misogyny.

The general point that emerges from the Pew analysis is that Afghanistan is a statistical outlier.

Islamic-majority countries, though, run the gamut.  Look at those numbers.  On every score, Afghanistan stands out.  It is particularly distressing to watch democratic backsliding in Turkey under Erdogan, but look at Turkey.  Only 12% of Turkish muslims supported the imposition of sharia law, 17% of whom believed in murdering apostates, so multiplying that out (.17*.12=.02), about 2% of Turkish muslims support murdering apostates.  If you are an apostate, even without the Taliban, you'd rather hang out in Istanbul than Kabul.  I like Afghan food, but Turkish food?  And Turkish coffee?  C'mon.  Is there anything better?  No.  Not really the point.  Just sayin'.

Islam is not one thing, and muslim countries run the gamut.  Turkey or Afghanistan?  Like I said, it is so depressing to watch what Erdogan is doing to Turkey, but Turkey is nothing like Afghanistan, and islam in Turkey is nothing like islam in Afghanistan.

"Come with me if you want to live."

Why would we need to say this to anyone?  Because people, because an ideology can take hold that will put their lives at risk.

In studies of public opinion, we will sometimes describe the distribution of an ideology as a statistical distribution along a spectrum.  Perhaps with a "Normal," or, "Gaussian" distribution.  Ye Olde Bell Curve.  There are tails to the right, and tails to the left, with a big, old clump in the center.  The Gaussian distribution has a specific equation, and specific mathematical properties, but that's kinda what we do.  Different distributions will have different means, and different variances (square of the standard deviation), describing the spread.

Yet there is another property, relevant to the discussion here.  Something harder to quantify, but vital to any political discussion.  The Overton Window.  The Overton Window is the range of concepts considered acceptable for discussion.  Not necessarily the mean or median, but the range considered open to discussion.  Hence, there can be a concept, proposal or idea that is some arbitrary, unspecified distance from the median, yet still discussed within the polity because it is within The Overton Window.

It is not merely that Afghanistan's median is very different from any Western democracy's median, although it clearly is.  My point is that when you have a country in which 60% support honor killings, and 79%... sorry... 78.21% support murdering apostates, the Taliban may not be the center of the polity, but their positions are within its Overton Window.

Put more simply, the Taliban are not Afghanistan's Proud Boys.  The Taliban are just... their Republican Party, or at most, their C-PAC.  A bit more "traditional," and open to violence, not really cool with the whole, modernity thing, and they don't really groove to democracy, but basically, it's a difference in degrees rather than in kind.  And just as Marjorie Taylor Greene is non-centrist but within our Overton Window, distressing as that is, the Taliban are to the right of Afghanistan's median.  But within their Overton Window.  The Taliban are just their... Marjorie Taylor Greenes.  And here, she's in fucking Congress.  And she's not alone.

Does anyone remember a crappy movie from the 1980s called Red Dawn?  (No, I haven't seen a new movie in a very long time.)  Basically, the Russians invade, and some kids go off to live in the woods and fight a guerrilla war against the commies.  It was the 80s.  The 80s sucked.  But the basic issue was that commie invaders trying to occupy America would have a big problem.  They ain't us, and the control that they would try to impose would be so outside of American culture and experience that it would take overwhelming force at all times, everywhere, to maintain.  Translation:  not practical.

If the Taliban showed up and tried to control San Francisco, or for fuck's sake, Texas, where everybody's packin' heat... how would that go?

But Afghanistan?

The Taliban's positions on politics, religion, society... yeah, they're to the right of Afghanistan's median.  But they're in that country's Overton Window.  They are in the Overton Window of a country where 78.21% believe in executing apostates, 60% support honor killings, and so forth.  Afghanistan is an outlier.  Its outlying characteristics are what allow the Taliban to take root.

These are politically sensitive observations, but I am a political scientist, analyzing data.  This is my job.  Academic freedom.  In tenure veritas.  The Pew survey gets into sensitive matters, though, because the survey forces cognitive dissonance into the forefront, for many on the left.  Two sets of values:  multiculturalism, and modern, Western liberalism.  Value set 1)  the rights of women, the LGBTQ population, religious minorities and others should be respected in a pluralistic society.  Value set 2)  other cultures must be placed on either equal or superior footing, or you're being colonialist.

These value sets run into conflict when there is a culture that so devalues Value Set 1.  I am far from the first to notice this conflict, and in fact, I have taught classes on ideology in which I assign readings on this very tension, particularly as it relates to the oppression of women around the world.

The thing is, we have data.  We can see what people believe.  Afghanistan is an outlier, and the patterns of opinion in Afghanistan have relevance to the ability of the Taliban to establish themselves there.  They are to the right of the median of Afghanistan.  But they are within its Overton Window.  Otherwise, they could not endure there.

What should we have been doing?

Come with me if you want to live.

OK, that line came from the 80s, and it was pretty badass, but Michael Biehn said it first.

Richard Thompson, in addition to being one of the greatest musical geniuses in the world, is also a sufi muslim.  After 9/11, he wrote this song, "Outside of the Inside."  It is about religious extremism, and probably the most insightful thing written in the aftermath of 9/11.  I also considered Steve Earle's "John Walker's Blues," about John Walker Lindh.  Steve Earle is pretty awesome, but Thompson?  Gotta go Thompson.  Here's a live version.  The studio version is on The Old Kit Bag.