Weekend preview: On political science forecasting, and why I haven't been inundating you with polls 'n stuff

Tomorrow, I will be posting a discussion of the political science forecasting models from the October, 2020 issue of PS: Political Science & Politics.  Along... with... a big pile of sodium chloride with which to take these models.  When our political system is on bath salts, that's only appropriate.

You may notice that I, as a quantitative political scientist-- one who spent the days after the 2016 election prostrating myself before the political science forecasting models and saying that I will never question them again because they got it right, even though the polls were wrong-- have not actually spent all that much time going through these models.  Nor... even... the... polls.

In a normal election, I'd be pointing you towards the electoral college map, expounding upon the proper way to analyze polls, telling you what the trends "mean," to the degree that they mean anything, and elaborating on how past precedent can illuminate our current election.  I ain't-a-doin' that this year.  Despite that pledge 'o mine.

Tomorrow, I'll write about the models, and what the models say.  Short version:  they favor Biden.

You know which poll doesn't favor Biden?  The big poll.  The poll of polls.  The one with a sample of nine.  From a population of nine.

You know which one I'm talkin' about, right?

The only thing on my mind right now is Bush v. Gore.  To hell with the polls, to hell with the map.  There are nine voters.  You ain't one of them.  (Probably.  Unless... really?  Do I have a Supreme reading this obscure blog?  No... way?!)

Samuel Alito, Clarence Thomas, Brett Kavanaugh and Amy Coney Barrett are locked in for Trump.

All Trump needs for his reelection is either John Roberts or Neil Gorsuch.  And Gorsuch has all the integrity of a damned plagiarist.

Biden needs to win the election, and then win both of their votes to become president.

Now do you understand why I'm not obsessing about the map?

See y'all tomorrow!