The 2020-21 academic year and COVID-19
For some colleges and universities, the new school year is already under way. For me, classes begin tomorrow.
Well.
I have already written my general thoughts on how Zoom-based education works, or does not work, and yet, when classes begin tomorrow, I will be walking intothe classroom my dining room, because my dining room happens to be where I have the best lighting for a laptop to act as my educational conduit.
Do I like teaching on-line? As always, the question is, "compared to what?'' Compared to a safe classroom? I'd take a safe classroom. I have explained why. That's just not an option. When COVID hit, I ran the numbers for you. Assume 1/3 contagion, with a 2% mortality rate for the worst case scenario, and that's before talking about all of the things we now know about what can happen even if you don't die, like cerebrovascular events. With a population of 330,000,000, if you have 1/3 contagion and 2% mortality, you're looking at 2.2 million dead. In perspective, that's 1/6th of a Holocaust, which killed 6 million jews, and 6 million assorted others, to use a conspicuous word.
What would you do to prevent 1/6th of a Holocaust?
We're creeping up on 200,000 dead. That's 1/10th of the worst case scenario. So, a) yay?, b) that's because of intervention, c) that's far worse than other countries because of gross incompetence at the federal level and in many states and localities, and d) that's also because people in this country are grotesquely stupid and vile, and turn basic things like mask-wearing into idiotically contentious issues.
And we ain't done yet. Open everything up again, pretend everything is normal and fine, and that worst-case scenario comes roaring back.
So. College. You know what college students do, right? Either you are one, or you were one. Even if you are/were a weird one, you know what most college students do. And now that colleges and universities are opening up, many are shutting right back down. Like this wasn't predictable.
Some institutions made their decisions for this Fall, or the year, long ago. They told students well in advance that the semester or year would be conducted online, and to plan accordingly. Others went through a charade of saying, "no! We're back in business! Come to campus and everything will be fine!" Well, you're seeing what's happening. Even before classes start.
There is a lot of institutional variation, but the consistent theme is the Scott Galloway dictum: "'This is unprecedented, and we're in this together,' which is Latin for, 'We're not lowering our prices, bitches.'"
Bluntly, I think a lot of institutions have lied to students and families to get those tuition checks. "We're open!" ... "Oh, darn. We have to move to online-only. So sorry!"
And if you're a Star Trek fan, you may know the Ferengi Rules of Acquisition. The First Rule of Acquisition: Once you have their money, never give it back.
Oh, and y'all might want to take a look at what happens with the money for "room and board." Dollar-for-dollar. Ask for the ledgers. Just sayin'.
Anyway, from a health and safety standpoint, preventing 1/6th of a Holocaust is a thing that can and should be done. We just suck.
U-S-A! U-S-A!
This puts colleges and universities in a difficult position, though. Zoom-based classrooms are simply inferior to old-fashioned classrooms. Those old-fashioned classrooms are not an option right now, though, and we can't have the Hoodie-based education that Sarah Pinsker posits in A Song For A New Day. (Yeah, I'm really thinking about that book. More soon.) The institutions that have moved immediately back online are not the only ones to do so. More will do so in the next couple of weeks, and probably later after drunken partiers and other assorted students who either don't or perhaps can't follow social distancing guidelines create COVID outbreaks.
Yeah, I said "can't." In some cases, it will be beyond their control. That's kind of the problem here. We've all seen douchebags who refuse to wear masks, or wear them down below their noses, and otherwise act like hemorrhoids on what is a rectum of a species anyway-- humanity. If we could just get these people to cluster together and only infect each other, how much would you care about a collective Darwin Award? Me=not judging you for your answer. Math!
The problem is that if they create super-spreader events by being idiotic douchebags, those of us trying to follow basic health and safety guidelines are still at risk. Unless you stay completely hidden, off-the-grid, or whatever, they're still a risk to you. They're still a danger to you.
And on a college campus, in close quarters, that risk is multiplied.
And there was no way that college students were going to be brought back on any campus without parties. Then, whoever goes exposes those who didn't go.
Will some campuses remain open, with in-person classes through the end of the Fall semester? Statistically, we have enough campuses across the country that some will probably remain open, to some extent, with in-person classes. However, spreading events are inevitable.
And predictable.
And they were predictable, long before these institutions told students and families to pony up the money.
Me? I'm Zoomin' it this semester. All things considered, I'd kinda like one of Pinsker's Hoodies as a solution, but as is so often the case, such technology is always just out of reach. Then again, in Blade Runner, there were replicants running around, and there was off-world travel, and references to space battles, and all sorts of stuff, but making a video call required a fancy phone booth. Predicting technology is hard. What's not hard? Predicting that college students are going to party. Predicting that this will create spreading events. Predicting that colleges and universities will have a lot of difficulty remaining open when campuses are petrie dishes in the best of times, and while this may not be the worst of times, these events are as predictable as my use of that line, even if I never liked Dickens.
Stay safe. Statistically, you're probably not going to die, particularly if you are young. Yet, acting like everything is normal means 1/6th of a Holocaust, and even if you don't die, the risks include, as we are learning, things like cerebrovascular events or long-term complications.
But hey. Even aLuddite Luddish (?), cantankerous, old-fashioned stick-in-the-mud like me can admit that there are benefits to modern technology. Zoom, and yeah, I even have fun writing this pretentious, little blog in which I shout into the void in a manner that is protected by academic freedom.
ACADEMIC FREEDOM! [Cough, cough... sorry about that. Just in case...]
Well.
I have already written my general thoughts on how Zoom-based education works, or does not work, and yet, when classes begin tomorrow, I will be walking into
Do I like teaching on-line? As always, the question is, "compared to what?'' Compared to a safe classroom? I'd take a safe classroom. I have explained why. That's just not an option. When COVID hit, I ran the numbers for you. Assume 1/3 contagion, with a 2% mortality rate for the worst case scenario, and that's before talking about all of the things we now know about what can happen even if you don't die, like cerebrovascular events. With a population of 330,000,000, if you have 1/3 contagion and 2% mortality, you're looking at 2.2 million dead. In perspective, that's 1/6th of a Holocaust, which killed 6 million jews, and 6 million assorted others, to use a conspicuous word.
What would you do to prevent 1/6th of a Holocaust?
We're creeping up on 200,000 dead. That's 1/10th of the worst case scenario. So, a) yay?, b) that's because of intervention, c) that's far worse than other countries because of gross incompetence at the federal level and in many states and localities, and d) that's also because people in this country are grotesquely stupid and vile, and turn basic things like mask-wearing into idiotically contentious issues.
And we ain't done yet. Open everything up again, pretend everything is normal and fine, and that worst-case scenario comes roaring back.
So. College. You know what college students do, right? Either you are one, or you were one. Even if you are/were a weird one, you know what most college students do. And now that colleges and universities are opening up, many are shutting right back down. Like this wasn't predictable.
Some institutions made their decisions for this Fall, or the year, long ago. They told students well in advance that the semester or year would be conducted online, and to plan accordingly. Others went through a charade of saying, "no! We're back in business! Come to campus and everything will be fine!" Well, you're seeing what's happening. Even before classes start.
There is a lot of institutional variation, but the consistent theme is the Scott Galloway dictum: "'This is unprecedented, and we're in this together,' which is Latin for, 'We're not lowering our prices, bitches.'"
Bluntly, I think a lot of institutions have lied to students and families to get those tuition checks. "We're open!" ... "Oh, darn. We have to move to online-only. So sorry!"
And if you're a Star Trek fan, you may know the Ferengi Rules of Acquisition. The First Rule of Acquisition: Once you have their money, never give it back.
Oh, and y'all might want to take a look at what happens with the money for "room and board." Dollar-for-dollar. Ask for the ledgers. Just sayin'.
Anyway, from a health and safety standpoint, preventing 1/6th of a Holocaust is a thing that can and should be done. We just suck.
U-S-A! U-S-A!
This puts colleges and universities in a difficult position, though. Zoom-based classrooms are simply inferior to old-fashioned classrooms. Those old-fashioned classrooms are not an option right now, though, and we can't have the Hoodie-based education that Sarah Pinsker posits in A Song For A New Day. (Yeah, I'm really thinking about that book. More soon.) The institutions that have moved immediately back online are not the only ones to do so. More will do so in the next couple of weeks, and probably later after drunken partiers and other assorted students who either don't or perhaps can't follow social distancing guidelines create COVID outbreaks.
Yeah, I said "can't." In some cases, it will be beyond their control. That's kind of the problem here. We've all seen douchebags who refuse to wear masks, or wear them down below their noses, and otherwise act like hemorrhoids on what is a rectum of a species anyway-- humanity. If we could just get these people to cluster together and only infect each other, how much would you care about a collective Darwin Award? Me=not judging you for your answer. Math!
The problem is that if they create super-spreader events by being idiotic douchebags, those of us trying to follow basic health and safety guidelines are still at risk. Unless you stay completely hidden, off-the-grid, or whatever, they're still a risk to you. They're still a danger to you.
And on a college campus, in close quarters, that risk is multiplied.
And there was no way that college students were going to be brought back on any campus without parties. Then, whoever goes exposes those who didn't go.
Will some campuses remain open, with in-person classes through the end of the Fall semester? Statistically, we have enough campuses across the country that some will probably remain open, to some extent, with in-person classes. However, spreading events are inevitable.
And predictable.
And they were predictable, long before these institutions told students and families to pony up the money.
Me? I'm Zoomin' it this semester. All things considered, I'd kinda like one of Pinsker's Hoodies as a solution, but as is so often the case, such technology is always just out of reach. Then again, in Blade Runner, there were replicants running around, and there was off-world travel, and references to space battles, and all sorts of stuff, but making a video call required a fancy phone booth. Predicting technology is hard. What's not hard? Predicting that college students are going to party. Predicting that this will create spreading events. Predicting that colleges and universities will have a lot of difficulty remaining open when campuses are petrie dishes in the best of times, and while this may not be the worst of times, these events are as predictable as my use of that line, even if I never liked Dickens.
Stay safe. Statistically, you're probably not going to die, particularly if you are young. Yet, acting like everything is normal means 1/6th of a Holocaust, and even if you don't die, the risks include, as we are learning, things like cerebrovascular events or long-term complications.
But hey. Even a
ACADEMIC FREEDOM! [Cough, cough... sorry about that. Just in case...]
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