Presidential leadership and the Batman test

The end scene from Christopher Nolan's The Dark Knight may be a bit overplayed at this point, but it really was a good movie.  Basically, Batman lets himself take the fall for a bunch of chaos, and lets the public image of Harvey Dent stand because Gotham needed that image rather than what Dent became-- Twoface.  Batman served the greater good by letting himself be seen as the villain.  Hated, hunted and ultimately sent into isolation and despair because the alternative was the dismantling of the image of Harvey Dent, and with that, everything that Dent had accomplished, and everything that his image could accomplish.  As someone who detests lies, I have my issues with the resolution, but there is something interesting and important about Batman's decision at the end of The Dark Knight.  He doesn't care at all how he is seen.  He doesn't care about glory or public fealty.  He wants what is best, and he is willing to be despised as the villain, knowing that he did what was right, if the end result is good.

He denies being a hero, but that is heroism.

Put yourself in the White House right now.  Two buttons.  (I like this kind of set-up.)  If you press Button A, the country will make it through the coronavirus crisis as well as it can.  We flatten the curve, save as many lives as we can, get the economy working again, and basically, save the country.  But, instead of you getting the credit, credit goes to... Barack Obama.  The country despises you as some combination of James Buchanan, Herbert Hoover, Richard Nixon and Ted Bundy.  Why him?  Dunno.  I just threw him in there, for funzies.

Press Button B, and everything goes down the toilet, but while Rome burns, you are feted for your greatness.

Which button does Donald Trump press?  Remember, press Button A, and credit goes to Barack Obama.  Even Fox News would say that it was Obama.  Hannity included.

You know full well that this isn't even a question.  You know exactly which button Trump presses.

Button A is the Dark Knight button.  It is also, I think, a good requirement for a leader.  Anyone who would fail this test has no business holding public office.

Interestingly, Dick Cheney would pass the Dark Knight test with flying colors.  So to speak.  I guess the 60's tv show Robin had a lot of color, and he was an acrobat, so, you know, flying colors.  Um... I'm reaching.  Let me get back on track.

Anyway, Cheney would pass.  One could disagree with a lot of what he did, and how he saw the world.  This is not an ideological assessment.  This isn't even an assessment of the nature of representation, exactly.  It is tangentially related to the concepts of delegate and trustee representation.  A delegate representative is one who simply implements the policy preferences of the electorate, and the trustee ignores those preferences to do what he thinks is best.  Dark Knight leadership is related to the concept of trustee representation, but really, this is closer to the issue of electoral responsiveness.

Electoral responsiveness is about reward for officials who do what the voters want, and punishment for officials who don't.  Dark Knight leadership is about willingness to face that punishment because the acts are necessary.  Yet, Dark Knight leadership goes beyond that, because it is also about individual psychology.

Think about what Richard Nixon's life was like from 1974 through his death in 1994.  He was one of the most vilified people in politics, to the point that every scandal is appended with the suffix, "-gate."  To be sure, he wasn't doing it because he thought it was morally right, although by Dershowitz's arguments during the Trump impeachment, Nixon could have gotten away with anything.  Nevertheless, that's hard.  But, consider Ford.  One of his early acts as President was pardoning Nixon.  At the time, he was vilified for it, but a lot of people later decided that Ford was right.  He took a lot of flack doing something that he thought was right, and judgment later came down on his side.  Where do I stand on that?  I'm still not sure, but that's closer to Dark Knight territory.

And now, we come to Trump.  He wants to end requirements for social distancing and reopen businesses.  Why?  It is tanking the economy.  And that could tank his electoral chances in 2020.

Does Trump understand that mass casualties would be even worse, not just for the economy, but for his 2020 chances?  No.  He is incredibly stupid.  He just thinks that there is a tradeoff between a) lives, and b) the economy + his 2020 chances.

The rough math I keep doing is this:  1/3 infection rate with 2% mortality is about 2 million dead in the US, which is approximately 1/6th of a Holocaust.  How much, economically and morally, is it worth to stop that?

To Trump?

To the Dark Knight, do what is necessary.  Become the hero Gotham needs, or deserves, or whatever.  And it doesn't matter if they hate you.  So let's say that what's necessary to save a lot of lives is to tank the economy.  And consequently lose the 2020 election.  The moral calculation says you do it, even if Gotham hates you for it.

But, if all you care about is the glory, and you're the type who presses Button B, you don't want to do that.  So, you start itchin' to reopen businesses.

Let's be clear.  If that kills a lot of people, the economics backfire and you lose anyway, but Trump is not, never as been, and never will be smart.  He admits that long-term planning isn't his thing, or, as the Joker would say, "do I look like a guy with a plan?"

To a short-term mindset, though, re-opening businesses will look like pressing Button B.  And that's troubling right now.

At an individual level, I keep reminding you to remain calm and rational.  At the political and economic level, there are some very troubling things happening right now.