On impending politician, artist and celebrity deaths due to coronavirus
Multiply this out: 1/3 probability of infection with a 2% mortality rate. That's a 0.67% chance of dying. For any individual, low, but for any set of sufficient size, the probability of at least one death gets high. How high? Do the math. Any one person's probability of survival, baseline, is 1-(.02)(1/3)=.9933. Probability of zero deaths with 104 people? Raise that to the 104th power. Sorry, my blog editor doesn't have an equation editor. Probability of zero deaths drops below .5 at 104 people.
What prompts this? Rand Paul tested positive for coronavirus. More Senators will, and if you do the math-- 100 Senators, odds are close to 50/50 that at least one Senator will die. Actually, that's just baseline. Senators are old. Their odds of dying, given infection, are higher than 2%, so Senators will die. House? 435. If we stuck with a 1/3 infection rate and 2% mortality rate, the probability of zero deaths from the House of Representatives would be just over 5%. So, call it a 95% chance at least one House member dies. I'm just doin' the math 'cuz that's what I do.
Kenny Rogers just died, and to some, he's a big deal. I love country, but other styles. When McCoy Tyner died recently, that was a big deal to me. As I read the story on Rand Paul, I was listening to Pat Metheny. You probably don't know him. Experimental jazz guitarist, but if you are into jazz, you know Metheny. Let's put it this way: if he died tomorrow, NPR would make a very big deal of it. His keyboard player died, and that was news. Metheny is big, in the jazz world.
He's also 65, which puts him in a high risk category. He gets infected, and his risk of mortality is higher than 2%.
How many famous people are important to you, in any way? Y'all know I'm big into music. I wandered over to my rather large music collection, and stared. Some of them are going to die. That's the cold, hard math. Most will live. A few will die.
What artists, celebrities, or even political figures are important to you? Know, and I mean know, with the certainty of asymptotes, that some will die.
I'm just a bundle of joy today.
What prompts this? Rand Paul tested positive for coronavirus. More Senators will, and if you do the math-- 100 Senators, odds are close to 50/50 that at least one Senator will die. Actually, that's just baseline. Senators are old. Their odds of dying, given infection, are higher than 2%, so Senators will die. House? 435. If we stuck with a 1/3 infection rate and 2% mortality rate, the probability of zero deaths from the House of Representatives would be just over 5%. So, call it a 95% chance at least one House member dies. I'm just doin' the math 'cuz that's what I do.
Kenny Rogers just died, and to some, he's a big deal. I love country, but other styles. When McCoy Tyner died recently, that was a big deal to me. As I read the story on Rand Paul, I was listening to Pat Metheny. You probably don't know him. Experimental jazz guitarist, but if you are into jazz, you know Metheny. Let's put it this way: if he died tomorrow, NPR would make a very big deal of it. His keyboard player died, and that was news. Metheny is big, in the jazz world.
He's also 65, which puts him in a high risk category. He gets infected, and his risk of mortality is higher than 2%.
How many famous people are important to you, in any way? Y'all know I'm big into music. I wandered over to my rather large music collection, and stared. Some of them are going to die. That's the cold, hard math. Most will live. A few will die.
What artists, celebrities, or even political figures are important to you? Know, and I mean know, with the certainty of asymptotes, that some will die.
I'm just a bundle of joy today.
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