In Tenure Veritas: Libations From The Ivory Tower

Yesterday's post pontificating on the state of political science and the November election was something that I knew I was going to write eventually, but let's be blunt.  It was a little more mundane than a lot of what I have been doing with In Tenure Veritas .  It was not, actually, what I started  to write.  What did  I start to write?  Something that I knew I couldn't post. You aren't going to see it.  I didn't finish it, I never will, and even if I did, I can't bloody post it.  Look, y'all, if you are reading this, you know that my sense of humor is somewhere between "did he just say that?" and "I know there's a first amendment, but seriously?! "  Sometimes, even I can tell when my jokes just shouldn't be told.  Sometimes.  This... was one of those times. But I just can't resist sharing the two titles I had in mind. A)  If you aren't mainlining bleach, you're letting the liberals win! B)  Drink some bleach,...

Eric McFadden, the title track from Who's Laughing Now?

This question keeps coming up.  So, I suppose I should write this post. After the 2016 election, I made the following pledge:  I will never question the political science forecasting models, or more specifically, the "Time For A Change" model, again. Here's what happened, as a refresher.  Contrary to popular misconceptions, political science actually got 2016 right .  A generic R was supposed to beat a generic D, based on underlying political fundamentals.  The model that I have consistently cited as my favorite-- Alan Abramowitz's "Time For A Change" model-- was one of the many models that worked.  It forecast an R victory.  Why?  It had three variables:  GDP growth in the second quarter of the election year, the incumbent's approval rating (even though he wasn't running), and a two-term penalty for the incumbent party because one party almost never wins a third term.  That final variable was the thing that really worked against the...

Yes, I listen to some  rock.  Dave Alvin & The Guilty Men, "Waiting For The Hard Times To Go," from Interstate City .

For the sake of all that is good and sane, not  for intravenous use! Freddie Hubbard, "Mr. Clean," from Red Clay .

This post is prompted by a survey I just took, sent by one of my colleagues from grad school.  The survey covered a lot of ground, but the question that prompts this post was about how cognizant political scientists are of the potential for effects to vary over time. Gee... why might that question have any resonance for me, or anyone else, right now? In fact, I had been pondering that one before COVID the Birdie started circling our collective heads, as several posts here indicated. In light of that, here's a lecture I've been giving students on the first day of Introductory classes, year after year, since I started this whole gig.  It goes a little something like this.  I start by asking students how the dinosaurs died.  Inevitably, there are a few kids who went through a dinosaur phase, who know immediately about the meteor.  I then tell them that that  wasn't what I  read when I  was a kid.  And I  ain't that old.  Whe...

Gary Lucas, "The Nightmare of History," from Bad Boys Of The Arctic .

On Liberty .  That is a clear reference to one of my favorite theorists-- John Stuart Mill .  Today's post isn't directly about Mill's ideas, but I figured I'd reference the title anyway. FREEDOM!!!  Are you picturing Mel Gibson getting eviscerated right now?  As Trump tweeted about how various governors should lift their lock-down orders, I couldn't help but picture Mel in Blueface doing the Braveheart  yell, and knowing what we know about Mel, I'm sure he and Trump would get along famously. Liberate.  Do you feel unfree?  So here's the thing.  I'm a big  1st Amendment advocate.  Kind of a purist.  You may have noticed a theme.  I really  care about the 1st Amendment.  This is me engaging in protected speech, right now!  You know what else is in that puppy?  The "right of the people peaceably to assemble." So...  Um...  Uh... Well.  OK, so when was the last time you assembled, Avenger...

Time for some Richard Thompson.  At some point, I was going to post "Keep Your Distance," and a couple of weeks ago, he included it in one of his live-streamed "concerts" in what I have called the all-day-every-day Couch-by-Couchwest.  I'm embedding the whole concert, but setting the embed to start at "Keep Your Distance," originally from Rumor & Sigh .

I know I used the Dirty Dozen Brass Band fairly recently, but given political dialog at the moment, if not epidemiological, this seems like a nice choice for today.  The title cut from Open Up: Whatcha Gonna Do For The Rest Of Your Life?

Time for another science fiction (ish) book post.  Recently, one of my students suggested turning the chit-chat before class into a sort of online book club.  I liked the idea, and suggested a book I have referenced a few times lately.  Actually, a lot of people have referenced this book lately because it is very good, very timely, and won awards before this whole coronavirus thing got started.  Emily St. John Mandel's Station Eleven .  Quick note here:  I will italicize Station Eleven  when referencing the novel, but there is a graphic novel series within the book, called, "Station Eleven," from which the novel gets its name.  When referencing the graphic novels (which obviously don't actually exist), I will just put it in quotation marks. Anyway, a bunch of students already had it on their bookshelves, but none had started it yet, so it seems to be working out.  I figure this is as good an opportunity as any for me to make a few comments....

Malcolm Holcombe, "The Station."  His live performances are both brilliant and unsettling, like his music.  The original studio version is from Another Wisdom .

I may not have been the first person to compare Donald Trump to Andy Kaufman or his alter-ego, Tony Clifton back in 2016, but I think I was among  the first.  I revisited the comparison on a few occasions, and amid the world being tossed into chaos with coronavirus, I think the time has come to revisit the comparison once again.  I can't just link back to my first Tony Clifton post from The Unmutual Political Blog , which is no more.  Sorry.  (Do I look like a guy with a plan?)  So, I suppose some explanation may be required once again. Andy Kaufman was a genius.  Whether he was a comedian, a performance artist, or something else, was never exactly clear.  He was, however, a genius.  Among his greatest creations was the character of Tony Clifton-- a blowhard lounge singer.  Clifton was actually a terrible  singer, and his schtick was to go on stage, sing badly, act belligerently, insult the audience, throw glasses of water at anyo...

Let's go with the instrumental version here.  Buck Owens & His Buckaroos, "Act Naturally."

The Rosenberg Trio, "Pent-Up House," from Caravan .  My favorite version from them is actually on Live At The Northsea Jazz Festival , but either way, the Rosenberg Trio   is one of the best modern Hot Club-style jazz acts around.

It is no secret that my hero, my teacher, my intellectual inspiration and my guiding light in all things is none other than the greatest philosopher of the 20th century.  George Carlin. He is best remembered for his seven-words bit, which is an all-time classic.  No dispute.  What you may not know is that just before the 9/11 attacks, Dr. Carlin* was working on a new set.  "I Kinda Like It When A Lot Of People Die."  There was never a proper video special.  Go figure.  It is, however, on youtube, just like everything else.  Have a listen.  The fun starts at 18:57. There were some earlier drafts of the bit, which don't seem to be available on youtube at the moment.  They lack the more upbeat "Uncle Dave" ending, to the degree that we can call that "upbeat," but still.  You can hear why recording this bit, right before 9/11, got problematic.  It's a pretty boundary-pushing act at any  time, but right before 9/11... yea...

Johnny A., "I Had To Laugh," from Get Inside .

Whenever I find a ubiquitous mantra, I have to poke at it with my contrarian pokin' stick.  Where'd I put that thing?  Ah.  Right here. We're all in this together.  Um... Really?  Trust is a tricky thing.  In surveys, like the American National Election Studies, we have historically asked a variety of questions to assess not just governmental trust, but social trust.  Consider the following question, asked from 1964 through 2004:  "Would you say that most of the time people try to be helpful, or that they are mostly just looking out for themselves?"  Cumulatively, 41.1% of respondents, over time, said that people look out for themselves, 56.1% said that people are helpful, and 2.8% either didn't know, refused to say, or something like that. The claim that "we're all in this together," to some extent, is the notion that looking out for each other is  looking out for one's self.  Being helpful and being selfish currently exist in ...

The New Orleans Suspects, "All By Myself," from their self-titled album.

This seems right.  Django Reinhardt, "The World Is Waiting For The Sunrise," from Djangology .